When conflict escalates, such as the one unfolding in the Gulf, the first images that come to mind are usually oil tankers, fuel prices and diplomatic tension. But the effects do not stop there. They move into fertiliser markets, then into farms and from there into food systems. In countries like Kenya, this is not something distant or theoretical. It shows up quickly in the cost of farming, even if the full effects on consumer food prices may take longer to work their way through markets.¹
Warui, H. M., Paul J., Gatwiri C., Kombo, F., Luig, L., & Tostado L.
When oil shocks become food realities
When conflict escalates, such as the one unfolding in the Gulf, the first images that come to mind are usually oil tankers, fuel prices and diplomatic tension. But the effects do not stop there. They move into fertiliser markets, then into farms and from there into food systems. In countries like Kenya, this is not something distant or theoretical. It shows up quickly in the cost of farming, even if the full effects on consumer food prices may take longer to work their way through markets.¹
This reflects a deeper and often less visible reality. Modern food systems are tightly bound to fossil fuels; not only through fertiliser, but across production, transport, storage, processing and packaging. Recent global analysis shows that food systems account for at least 15 percent of global fossil fuel use each year.² At the same time, only about 20 percent of this energy use occurs at the farm level, with the majority embedded in processing, packaging, retail and consumption.³
Recent disruptions around key trade routes such as the Strait of Hormuz are already contributing to rising fertiliser prices, reflecting tightening energy markets and supply constraints.¹ At the same time, the transmission of these increases into global food prices remains uneven. While agricultural commodity prices have not yet risen at the same pace as fertiliser costs, there is a clear risk that prolonged disruptions will translate into higher food prices over time.⁴
This is why the current Gulf crisis matters for Kenya. It is not only an oil story. It is also a food systems story.
Recent global analyses reinforce this point. Food systems built around fossil fuels remain deepely exposed to geopolitical shocks.⁵ At the same time, disruptions to energy and fertiliser supply chains continue to raise production costs across agriculture, even where consumer food prices have not yet fully adjusted.⁶
The message across these analyses is clear: the more agriculture depends on fossil fuels and imported synthetic fertilisers, the more exposed it becomes to global instability.
A system built on dependency
Kenya is firmly part of this system. Agriculture depends heavily on synthetic fertilisers, most of which are imported. This ties production directly to international energy markets, shipping routes, and geopolitical stability.
To understand this dependence more clearly, it is important to look at how nitrogen fertilisers are produced. Most commonly used fertilisers, such as urea, originate from ammonia produced through the Haber-Bosch process. This process relies heavily on natural gas; not only as an energy source, but as a key feedstock for hydrogen. In practical terms, this makes nitrogen fertiliser a fossil fuel-based product.¹
This is the deeper point captured in the Soil Atlas 2024, which shows that nitrogen fertiliser production is closely tied to fossil fuels and global supply chains.⁷ Fertiliser is therefore not simply an agricultural input; it is part of a wider system linking food production to energy markets and geopolitical dynamics.
But fertiliser is only one part of a much larger picture. Fossil fuels are also embedded in farm machinery, irrigation systems, transport networks, cold storage, food processing, and packaging; particularly plastics, which together with fertilisers account for a significant share of petrochemical demand.²
At the same time, the Soil Atlas 2024 reminds us of something more fundamental: soil itself is a living system that underpins food production, water regulation and ecological balance.⁸
This shifts the conversation. If soil is alive, fertility cannot simply be supplied from outside.
Soil health: the missing foundation
The Soil Atlas: Kenya Edition 2025 brings this global argument into local focus. It shows that only about 20 percent of Kenya’s land is suitable for agriculture, underscoring how limited and valuable this resource is.⁹ At the same time, soil organic carbon is low across large areas, reducing the capacity of soils to retain nutrients and support plant growth.¹⁰ Soil degradation, including erosion, nutrient depletion and soil acidity, is also widespread, undermining productivity and resilience.¹¹
These findings point to a deeper issue. Fertiliser access alone cannot solve declining soil fertility. Where soils are degraded, fertiliser efficiency declines. In some cases, continued application without restoring soil health can deepen imbalances.
Globally, soil degradation is already affecting a significant share of agricultural land, reinforcing the urgency of restoring soil systems.¹²
The issue, therefore, is not only whether farmers can access fertiliser, but whether soils are healthy enough to respond.
What soil biology tells us
Scientific evidence supports this broader understanding.
Mineral fertilisers can increase yields, particularly where nutrients are limiting. But their effects on soil biological systems are complex. Research shows that while fertilisers may increase microbial biomass in some contexts, they do not necessarily improve long-term soil health or resilience.¹³
More recent work highlights that soil fertility depends on biological processes, microbial diversity, organic matter and nutrient cycling, rather than nutrient inputs alone.
This has renewed interest in biological pathways such as composting, manure use, nitrogen-fixing plants and microbial interactions. Studies on arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi, for example, show that they can improve nutrient uptake and support soil function, potentially reducing fertiliser dependence under certain conditions.¹⁴ However, these benefits depend on overall soil health and management.
The lesson is clear: soil fertility is fundamentally biological, not just chemical.
Beyond fertiliser: rethinking the model
Recent debates reinforce this point. There is growing recognition that even “green” fertiliser solutions do not address the deeper issue of dependency.¹⁵ While alternative production methods may reduce greenhouse gas emissions, they do not fundamentally change the reliance on externally produced inputs or the vulnerabilities that come with it.
More importantly, focusing only on fertiliser risks missing the broader system. The same fossil fuel dependence runs through transport, processing, storage and packaging, meaning that even a shift in fertiliser production alone does not fundamentally change the functioning of the food system.²
At the same time, global analysis shows that fossil fuel-dependent food systems remain vulnerable to shocks such as the current Gulf crisis.⁵
The conclusion is increasingly clear: the issue is not only fertiliser supply; it is the system built around it.
An opportunity for Kenya to shift course
Kenya has already begun to respond. The National Agroecology Strategy recognises the need to strengthen soil health, support ecological farming systems and reduce dependency on external inputs.¹⁶
At the same time, ongoing work shows that farmers are already using alternatives, including composting, agroforestry, crop diversification and biological soil inputs.¹⁷ These approaches demonstrate that fertility can increasingly be generated within farming systems rather than imported through global supply chains.
However, they remain under-supported compared to fertiliser-based systems.
From crisis to transition
The current Gulf crisis should therefore be read as more than another episode of price volatility. It reveals a deeper vulnerability in how food systems are organised. Fertiliser dependency exposes farmers to global shocks, ties food systems to energy systems, and leaves production models fragile.
At the same time, it creates an opportunity. A more resilient system would invest in soil organic matter and biological fertility, support farmers to reduce dependency on external inputs, strengthen local production of organic and biological inputs, and align policy with long-term soil health goals.
This does not mean abandoning fertilisers overnight. But it does mean rethinking their role within a broader system.
Where does Kenya go from here?
The soil atlases remind us that soil is the foundation of life.⁸
That framing shifts the central question: not how to secure more fertiliser, but how to build soils that sustain productivity.
Kenya already has the evidence, the policy direction and the practical experience to support this transition. The question is whether this will lead to real change, or whether the cycle of rising costs, external shocks and reactive responses will continue.
Footnotes
- Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). (2026). FAO Chief Economist warns of severe global food security risks from disruption to Strait of Hormuz trade corridor. https://www.fao.org/newsroom/detail/fao-chief-economist-warns-of-severe-global-food-security-risks-from-disruption-to-strait-of-hormuz-trade-corridor/en
- Global Alliance for the Future of Food & Dalberg. (2023). The Food-Energy Nexus: Powering a Just Transition.https://futureoffood.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/ga_food-energy-nexus_report.pdf
- Global Alliance for the Future of Food & Dalberg. (2023). The Food-Energy Nexus: Powering a Just Transition.https://futureoffood.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/ga_food-energy-nexus_report.pdf
- United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD). (2026). From gas to grain: Fertilizer disruptions raise risks for food security and trade. https://unctad.org/news/gas-grain-fertilizer-disruptions-raise-risks-food-security-and-trade
- Luig, L., & Lappé, A. (2026). Middle East war is another wake-up call for fossil-fuel-reliant food systems. https://www.climatechangenews.com/2026/03/19/middle-east-war-is-another-wake-up-call-for-fossil-fuel-reliant-food-systems/
- Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). (2026). Iran, fertilizer, and food security: Risks, impacts, and policy responses.https://www.csis.org/analysis/iran-fertilizer-and-food-security-risks-impacts-and-policy-responses
- Bassermann, L., & Tups, G. (2024). Nitrogen fertiliser: global dependencies. In Soil Atlas 2024.https://eu.boell.org/en/SoilAtlas-Nitrogen-Fertilisers
- Vargas, R. (2024). Ecosystem soil: the foundation of life. In Soil Atlas 2024.https://eu.boell.org/en/SoilAtlas-ecosystem-soil
- Heinrich Böll Stiftung Nairobi. (2025). Soil Atlas Kenya Edition. https://ke.boell.org/en/2025/03/03/soil-atlas-2025-only-20-kenyas-land-suitable-food-production
- Kimani, S. (2025). Soil types: Kenya’s diverse soils. In Soil Atlas Kenya Edition 2025.https://ke.boell.org/en/2025/02/18/soil-types
- Warui, H., & Gatwiri, C. (2025). Soil degradation: a silent crisis in East Africa. InSoil Atlas Kenya Edition 2025.https://ke.boell.org/en/2025/02/27/soil-degradation-silent-crisis-east-africa
- Warui, H. (2024). Soil degradation: the silent global crisis. In Soil Atlas 2024. https://eu.boell.org/en/SoilAtlas
- Geisseler, D., & Scow, K. (2014). Long-term effects of mineral fertilizers on soil microorganisms. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.soilbio.2014.03.023
- Begum, N., et al. (2024). Role of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi in sustainable agriculture. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S240584402400851X
- Heinrich Böll Stiftung. (2025). Green fertilizer in Africa is no substitute for an agroecological transition. https://www.boell.de/en/2025/02/12/green-fertilizer-in-africa-no-substitute-for-an-agroecological-transition
- Government of Kenya. (2024). National Agroecology Strategy for Food System Transformation (2024–2033). https://kilimo.go.ke/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/National-Agroecology-Strategy-for-Food-System-Transformation-2024-2033.pdf
- Heinrich Böll Stiftung Nairobi. (2025). Policy: Beyond fertilisers; Soil health revolutions. https://ke.boell.org